Market Recovery Continues: No DeLorean Needed for Real Estate Success
I'm sure we can all agree with Doc's advice to Marty McFly. We all need to keep our sense of humor. But wouldn't it be great to have that DeLorean right now?
Okay, so much for kidding around... on to Real Estate. The trends in our COVID-19 influenced Real Estate Market continue as we have described over the last few months. After the systemic shock of the first Shelter in Place order, our market has continued to recover, approaching the levels of 2019. Our late-to-arrive Spring Market finally ended in early October with a couple of quiet days. No sooner did the Spring Market end, than the Fall Market roared to full force, completely skipping over our usual summer doldrums. It seems clear that the pandemic has simply compressed our year into the final 6 months of 2020. We fully expect the 4th Quarter to be a robust market that will last well beyond the traditional slowdown at Thanksgiving. Here are the numbers:
The Market Snapshot
Unit Volume and Dollar Volume Performance
Unit Volume and Dollar Volume of sales continue to improve but are still down versus last year across all of our markets.
- Unit Volume is only down about 15% versus last year. That is a significant improvement in the 3rd Quarter. We were down over 30% year to date at the end of June.
- Likewise, Dollar Volume has shown a marked improvement. This metric is down only about 8% versus last year. Whereas, at the end of June, we were down 27%.
Active Inventory Trends
Active Inventory continues to rise.
- While we have not reached 2019 levels yet, we are closing in.
- As homeowners become more comfortable with digital marketing, no Sunday Open Houses, and all of the Safety Measures in place to ensure safe, in-person showings, the inventory should continue to rise.
Median Price Stability
The Median Price continues to hold steady.
- Our entire market is up 6% in Median Price.
- Some neighborhoods move up and down slightly, but overall, we have recovered to near the pre-pandemic price increase of 10% over last year.
What about my Neighborhood?
At the time of writing this, Alameda County has moved to Tier 2 of the re-opening plan. However, all of our Agents and Staff remain vigilant about safety; wearing Personal Protective Equipment, keeping our offices and homes for sale clean and safe, and stocking all of our listings with masks, sanitizing wipes and hand sanitizer. While all of these measures are still absolutely necessary and required, many of them will remain a good idea even after the pandemic is over.
It is interesting how many things have changed due to the pandemic. With the work-at-home phenomena, Buyers are now looking for greater privacy, larger outdoor spaces and Zoom Rooms. Concerns of living near public transportation and thoughts of commute corridors have greatly diminished. The Oakland and Berkeley hills have seen renewed popularity due to the perception of greater privacy. The first 8 weeks of the Shelter in Place orders probably advanced the digital transformation of our world by at least 5 years and will probably continue. Clearly, Real Estate remains the bright spot in our economic recovery given that we all need shelter to Shelter in Place. We will all come through this and in a few months and leave 2020 behind. And we'll do it without the need for Doc's DeLorean.
Stay safe and healthy.
